The 2025 edition of the Trade Trends Estimates for Latin America and the Caribbean provides an in-depth analysis of the region’s trade performance, highlighting export and import trends, key trading partners, sectoral shifts, and external risks shaping the trade landscape.

Despite export growth of 4.1% in 2024, this recovery was driven more by volume than price gains, and uncertainty remains high due to geopolitical tensions, China’s slowdown, climate-related disruptions, and shifting trade policies.

1. Trade Performance Overview

• Exports increased by 4.1% in 2024, bouncing back from a 1.6% decline in 2023.
• This growth was primarily volume-driven, as commodity prices remained flat or fell.
• Imports grew by 3.2%, recovering from a 6.8% drop in 2023, but still lagging pre-pandemic levels.
• Intraregional trade declined, with LAC’s intra-regional trade share falling from 15.1% to 14.7%.

Subregional Performance

• South America: Exports grew 4.0%, reversing a 4.4% decline in 2023. Countries like Argentina (+18.1%) and Peru (+15.8%) saw strong rebounds.
• Mesoamerica: 3.6% export growth, with Mexico leading at 4.0%, while Central America stagnated (0.1%).
• The Caribbean: Exports rose 18.3%, following a 14.9% drop in 2023, primarily driven by Guyana’s oil exports (+59.6%).

2. Key Trading Partners & Market Trends

Latin America’s trade is heavily dependent on the U.S., China, and the EU, each of which showed varying trends in 2024.

Trade with the U.S.

• Exports to the U.S. grew 6.7%, an acceleration from 3.1% in 2023.
• LAC’s share of U.S. total imports increased slightly, from 20.0% to 20.3%.
• Growth was mainly driven by Mexico, which remains the top U.S. trading partner in the region.

Trade with China

• Exports to China declined slightly (-0.1%), following a 4.7% increase in 2023.
• Weakening demand for raw materials and agricultural products weighed on LAC exports.
• Brazil and Chile, two of the top exporters to China, saw slower trade growth than in previous years.

Trade with the EU

• Exports to the EU grew by 1.9%, rebounding from a 6.4% decline in 2023.
• Gains were driven by higher exports of agricultural and mineral products.

Intraregional Trade (LAC-LAC Trade)

• Trade between LAC countries fell, with intraregional exports decreasing from 15.1% to 14.7% of total trade.
• Regional trade blocs like Mercosur, the Pacific Alliance, and Central American markets struggled with low demand and logistical constraints.

3. Commodity Trends & Sectoral Performance

Latin America remains highly dependent on commodity exports, making price fluctuations a major factor in overall trade growth.

Commodity Prices & Trends

• Oil prices fell by 2.7%, despite OPEC+ production cuts.
• Soybean prices plunged by 22.1%, mainly due to record harvests in Brazil and Argentina.
• Sugar prices dropped 13.7%, following improved supply from India and Thailand.
• Iron ore prices fell 9.2%, driven by weaker demand from China.
• Coffee prices surged by 57.7%, with Arabica up 36.3% and Robusta up 71.7%, benefiting exporters like Brazil and Colombia.
• Copper prices rose 9.4%, boosted by supply disruptions and strong demand from renewable energy and electric vehicle markets.

Sector-Specific Performance

• Agricultural Exports: Strong recovery, led by soybeans (despite price drops), coffee, and fruit exports.
• Mining & Metals: Copper and lithium saw price rebounds, while iron ore and gold showed mixed results.
• Oil & Gas: Mixed performance, with strong export volume growth in Guyana and Venezuela, but lower prices affected revenue.

4. Country-Level Trade Performance

Some Latin American economies saw strong rebounds, while others struggled due to price drops or weaker demand.

Biggest Export Gainers in 2024

• Argentina: +18.1% (agriculture, soybeans, beef)
• Peru: +15.8% (gold, copper, fishmeal)
• Guyana: +59.6% (oil exports boom)
• Venezuela: +18.7% (oil shipments to Asia)
• Uruguay: +14.6% (agriculture, beef, dairy)

Countries with Trade Declines

• Brazil: -0.8% (declining soybean prices offset volume gains)
• Bolivia: -19.1% (weak gas exports, lower demand)
• Ecuador: Exports grew (+8.6%), but political uncertainty threatens investment.

5. Risks & Future Outlook

The trade outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, with multiple external risks potentially affecting Latin America’s trade performance.

Key Risks

• China’s Economic Slowdown: Slower Chinese demand for raw materials could impact South America’s major commodity exporters.
• Global Trade Fragmentation: U.S.-China tensions, EU regulations, and regional trade disputes could reshape supply chains.
• Climate Change Disruptions:
  • Severe droughts in the Panama Canal reduced shipping capacity.
  • Flooding in Brazil and Argentina affected agricultural yields.
• Geopolitical Conflicts:
  • The Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East may destabilize global commodity markets.
  • Ongoing U.S. political uncertainty could impact Mexico’s nearshoring boom.

Future Growth Opportunities

• Nearshoring & Supply Chain Shifts:
  • Mexico continues to benefit from U.S. companies relocating production closer to home.
  • Central America may emerge as a new nearshoring hub, particularly for textiles and electronics.
• Green Trade & Renewable Energy:
  • Lithium, green hydrogen, and renewable energy projects are expanding in Argentina, Chile, and Brazil.
• Digital Trade & Services:
  • E-commerce and fintech exports are rising, particularly in Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil.

Conclusion

Latin America and the Caribbean saw a trade rebound in 2024, but growth was uneven and largely dependent on export volumes rather than price increases. While U.S. and EU trade expanded, China’s demand slowed, and intraregional trade weakened.

Key Takeaways

✔ Export growth was driven by volume, not price gains.
✔ Oil, coffee, and copper performed well, while soybeans and sugar faced price drops.
✔ Argentina, Peru, and Guyana saw strong export growth, while Brazil and Bolivia struggled.
✔ Trade with the U.S. expanded (+6.7%), but China’s demand remained flat (-0.1%).
✔ Nearshoring, digital trade, and green industries offer growth opportunities.

Looking ahead, global economic conditions, climate risks, and geopolitical shifts will shape LAC’s trade trajectory in 2025. The region will need to diversify trade partners, invest in infrastructure, and capitalize on emerging opportunities in green and digital sectors to maintain sustainable growth.