Week 30, 2024 - Latin America

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The first half of 2024 has seen significant economic developments in Latin America, characterized by a cycle of monetary easing, gradual inflation decline, and steady economic growth. This period has been marked by diverse financial conditions, varying responses to global economic shifts, and a persistent focus on managing...
Published on
July 26, 2024

"Do you accept the idea that there is no explanation?” - Julio Cortázar (Argentinian novelist)

MARKETS

July 25, End Of Day

BUSINESS

10 Trends in the Latin American Economy

The first half of 2024 has seen significant economic developments in Latin America, characterized by a cycle of monetary easing, gradual inflation decline, and steady economic growth. This period has been marked by diverse financial conditions, varying responses to global economic shifts, and a persistent focus on managing inflation and fostering sustainable growth. Here are ten key insights into the current economic landscape of Latin America, from the report by  Banco de España:

  1. Monetary Easing Cycle: Central banks in Latin America have been reducing policy interest rates since mid-2023, aligning with declining inflation and the business cycle.
  2. Inflation Trends: Inflation is gradually declining across the region, expected to fall within central banks' target ranges, despite persistent services inflation.
  3. Financial Markets and Interest Rates: Limited further rate cuts are anticipated, influenced by US monetary policy. Higher commodity prices help cushion currency depreciation.
  4. Economic Growth: Latin American economies are projected to grow close to their potential rates in 2024 and 2025, with external risks such as US policy tightening and China's slowdown.
  5. Financial Conditions: Since March 2024, financial conditions have tightened despite policy rate cuts, due to higher interest rates on sovereign debt and public finance vulnerabilities.
  6. Credit Growth and Banking Sector: Lending has increased slightly and is expected to gain momentum, though non-performing loans remain high by historical standards.
  7. Fiscal Policy: A looser fiscal stance in 2024 may lead to more gradual rate cuts than expected, with significant public debt concerns in Brazil and Mexico.
  8. Inflation Persistence: Services inflation remains particularly persistent in Colombia and Mexico, driven by larger and more sensitive inflation shocks.
  9. Exchange Rates: Regional currencies have depreciated against the US dollar, influenced by US monetary policy and local rate cuts, with higher commodity prices mitigating some depreciation.
  10. Long-term Inflation Expectations: Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored, reflecting central bank credibility, though upward pressures are noted in Brazil.

Fundraising picks of the week

Cirkula: Their innovative approach focuses on reducing food waste and increasing profits by selling surplus quality food. With a network of over 400 stores and restaurants, Cirkula is actively transforming food waste management and contributing to a more sustainable future. Dive deeper into the case here.

Limay Biosciences: Limay Biosciences develops rapid molecular testing solutions, achieving bacteria detection up to 70x faster (1-2hs vs 48-72hs today). Their micro portable devices enable critical, point-of-need diagnostics, significantly reducing risks associated with treatment delays. Dive deeper into the case here.

Clinspace: Clinspace is connecting healthcare professionals with clinics that have available spaces. This company is tackling the inefficiencies of healthcare space utilization with a platform that offers over 800 office space options. Get to know the case here.

Interested in Latin American businesses? Subscribe here to get business updates in the verticals that interest you the most.

Dive deeper into other fundraising firms in LatAm here.

CURRENT AFFAIRS

Venezuela: Venezuelans are set to vote in a presidential election on July 28, with incumbent President Nicolas Maduro facing opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. Gonzalez, a former diplomat, has gained significant support, but there are concerns about the fairness of the election. Maduro, seeking a third term, has promised peace and economic growth, emphasizing social infrastructure projects. Gonzalez, campaigning with former candidate Maria Corina Machado, pledges to facilitate the return of exiles and free political prisoners.

Mexico: President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum has appointed loyalists of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to key cabinet roles, signaling continuity with his administration. Finance Minister Rogelio Ramírez de la O will stay on to reassure investors. Sheinbaum aims to follow López Obrador's political agenda, facing challenges with proposed reforms, budget austerity, and US relations amid potential political changes.

Brazil: Japanese credit investor Credit Saison committed $100 million to Brazil to collaborate with fintechs and local firms, providing loans to individuals and small businesses. CEO Kosuke Mori praised Brazil's fintech ecosystem and regulatory environment. The firm aims to expand the investment to $300 million to $500 million in the next three to five years, following its growth model in markets like India.

FURTHER READING

Check our recently published insights here. Recent post:

🔗 Blockchain’s Future in Latin America

Blockchain technology is set to dramatically reshape Latin America's economic landscape, with a projected market growth from USD 0.52 billion in 2023 to USD 7.93 billion by 2032. Driven by the need for financial inclusion and transparency, countries are spearheading initiatives in remittances, supply chain management, and secure voting systems.

Top 3 Trends Shaping Blockchain in Latin America:

  1. 🪙 Stablecoin Surge: As inflation soars, stablecoins are becoming a preferred financial safe haven, offering stability against volatile local currencies.
  2. 💸 Bitcoin’s Broad Reach: With over 40% market dominance, Bitcoin continues to be a popular choice amidst economic instability and banking limitations, especially in countries like Argentina.
  3. 🔖 Tokenization Trends: High inflation countries are turning to tokenization to digitize assets and stabilize financial operations.

🔍 Read more here.

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